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80 Million RedCap IoT Module Shipments Forecast by 2029, of Which 71% Will be eRedCap

September 5, 2024

5G RedCap was finalized in the 3GPP’s Release 17 to provide device OEMs with a migration pathway from 4G LTE to 5G for mid-range devices, whose throughput requirements sit between those of enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) and Low-Power Wide-Area (LPWA). This makes 5G RedCap particularly interesting for the IoT.

ABI Research, a global technology intelligence firm, forecasts IoT RedCap module shipments will accumulate to 80 million from 2024 to 2029.

“5G RedCap is a series of network and device optimizations that strips back device complexity, acting as a natural successor to LTE Cat-4 and LTE Cat-6. It is a means of providing an affordable pathway to 5G for IoT device OEMs that do not require the full spectrum of 5G capabilities,” explains Jonathan Budd, Industry Analyst at ABI Research.

“The mid-tier LTE Categories have proven valuable in connecting IoT devices; RedCap delivers LTE-equivalent throughput performance, with assurance of network longevity into the 5G era. Unsurprisingly, 5G RedCap is drawing significant interest across the IoT value chain, with Qualcomm, MediaTek, UNISOC, and ASR Microelectronics quick to enter the chipset market.”

The second iteration of the RedCap standard enhanced RedCap (eRedCap) will reduce device complexity even further to unlock another sizeable addressable market for IoT devices OEMs that currently use, or plan to use, LTE-Cat-1 and Cat-1bis. These LTE categories serve a substantial pool of IoT applications, representing a greater market opportunity than 5G RedCap. From 2024 to 2029, 56 million modules, or 71% of all RedCap modules, are due to be eRedCap, with 23 million, or 29% of RedCap modules for 5G RedCap (R17).

Sequans has already announced its intention to develop an eRedCap chip, and we can expect more silicon vendors to follow in what is projected to be a hyper-competitive space.

“As a replacement for LTE Cat-1 and Cat-1bis, eRedCap will be widely applicable in connecting devices across the IoT application landscape, and chipset and module manufacturers will seek to attain customer loyalty as early as possible,” concludes Budd.

These findings are from ABI Research’s 5G RedCap Standards and Chipsets for IoT application analysis report& Devices report.

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