2028 looks like trouble for Democrats — and Republicans are poised to capitalize
As we settle into the second Trump administration, eyes are already turning toward 2028. With President Donald Trump barred from a third elected term by the 22nd Amendment, the Republican nomination looks like a coronation for Vice President JD Vance. Polling shows Vance dominating the GOP field, with 46% support in a recent survey. That’s far ahead of potential challengers.
Vance, the Ohio senator and author of ‘Hillbilly Elegy,’ embodies the Trumpian blend of populism, economic nationalism and cultural conservatism that has reshaped the GOP. Operationally, his run would extend Trump’s legacy, focusing on border security, trade deals favoring American workers and an America First foreign policy.
On the Democratic side, the picture is murkier. The list of potential nominees reads like a progressive wish list: California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif.., and Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.
Nationally, an Emerson College poll from June 2025 pegs the race as wide open with former V.P. and 2024 Democratic nominee Kamala Harris fading quickly. Early polls for the 2028 nomination reveal a crowded field of far-left contenders, with Newsom emerging as a frontrunner in recent weeks. A Newsweek analysis of state-level polling shows Newsom leading in at least two key states, including his home turf of California as well as Ohio, where he reportedly commands strong support among Democratic voters.
Other polls, such as one from Zeteo and Data for Progress in April 2025, show Buttigieg, Booker and Ocasio-Cortez leading in scenarios without Harris. But Newsom’s name recognition and fundraising prowess give him an edge — especially with Newsom’s high-profile, but likely doomed effort to redistrict California via ballot initiative this November.
In America’s two-party system, winning the presidency hinges on capturing the Electoral College, which rewards candidates who appeal to the center. Candidates typically tack toward the commonsense center in general elections, shedding primary extremism to court swing voters in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
But Democrats have struggled with this since 1968, when the Vietnam War radicalized the elite left, pulling the party away from the mainstream.
The result? Four blowout elections out of five contests: 1972, Richard Nixon with 520 Electoral College votes to George McGovern with 17; 1980, Ronald Reagan, 489 to Jimmy Carter, 49; 1984, Ronald Reagan 525 to Walter Mondale, 13; 1988, George H.W. Bush 426 to Mike Dukakis, 111.
Bill Clinton’s two elections in the 1990s were anomalies fueled by George H.W. Bush’s infamous ‘no new taxes’ pledge break, which alienated conservatives, and H. Ross Perot’s third-party run (fueled by personal animus towards Bush), which siphoned votes from Bush.
The Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) played a huge role as well, as it pushed for a moderate and electable nominee. Even so, Bush’s sky-high popularity (the result of the crushing victory against Iraq in 1991 in the Gulf War) caused many popular Democrats not to run for the nomination.
Clinton won two general elections with 43% of the popular vote in 1992 and 49% in 1996. Importantly, Clinton governed with centrist moves like welfare reform and a balanced budget (though largely due to the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994)—policies that today’s Democrats would decry as right-wing.
Fast-forward to today, and the Democratic Party is adrift. The influence of progressives, supercharged during President Barack Obama’s eight years, has made it nearly impossible to nominate someone who can win nationally.
The Democratic Party base demands fealty to identity politics, open borders and climate extremism. This alienates working-class voters who flipped to Trump in 2016 and stayed Republican thereafter. Polls consistently show Americans rejecting these positions: majorities support border walls, favor energy independence over green mandates and oppose defunding the police.
Newsom exemplifies this dilemma. As California’s governor, he’s presided over skyrocketing homelessness, rapidly rising energy prices and a population exodus — policies that play well in San Francisco, but flop in Pennsylvania.
Early in 2025, Newsom made a rare nod to the center, stating during a podcast that allowing biological males to compete in women’s sports is ‘deeply unfair’ and an ‘issue of fairness.’ Newsom’s remarks align with public sentiment; surveys show 80% or more of Americans oppose transgender athletes in female competitions, viewing it as a commonsense protection for women’s opportunities.
Newsom quickly backpedaled amid backlash from party activists. By April, he downplayed the remarks as unplanned and in May he supported rule changes allowing more transgender participation in state events — despite controversy.
Newsom’s flip-flop under left-wing pressure reveals the bind: Stray from the left and you risk the nomination. Stick to it and you lose the general.
A few Democrats hint at moderation, like Khanna of California. Khanna, a progressive who co-chaired Sen. Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign has carved out bipartisan ground on issues like tech regulation and manufacturing revival. He’s advocated for bringing jobs back to America, echoing Trump-era themes and called for Democratic unity amid ideological excesses.
Khanna critiques ‘woke’ politics as weakening the party, positioning himself as a bridge-builder. Yet even he supports progressive staples like ‘Medicare for All’ and aggressive climate action, limiting his appeal beyond the base.
Barring an economic or foreign crisis, the Democrats’ leftward drift dooms them. Vance, inheriting Trump’s coalition and likely expanding it, starts with advantages in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.
History shows parties win by claiming the center. Republicans have mastered that under Trump. Democrats? Their left-wing tidal lock leaves them wholly unable to see, much less voice, commonsense policies.
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